Fantasy Football w/ Frank Ober

Fantasy Football Playoffs

Week 15

Congratulations if you made the playoffs in your fantasy league.  A golden rule in the playoffs that I have learned through the years is to continue playing the players who got you this far.  If you have been happy with a player’s performance, then you must continue to play that player.  Do not overthink your line up and start getting hung up on matchups.  There is a reason you got to this point.  Do not pressure yourself into making changes just because it is the playoffs.

I finished in 2nd place this season in a 12-team non-PPR league with a record of 10-3-1.  The tie was against the 1st place team who finished a ½ game ahead of me.  I will say I am surprised at how well I finished since my top draft picks underachieved.  My success was primarily due to my team’s strength at the QB, PK and DST positions.  This league does not require a TE.  The following is my team:

Starting Lineup Backups

QB: Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals) Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)

RB: Kenneth Walker (Seattle Seahawks) Zach Charbonnet (Seattle Seahawks)

Rachaad White (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers)

WR: Tyreek Hill (Miami Dolphins) Jakobi Meyers (Las Vegas Raiders)

Jameson Williams (Detroit Lions) Calvin Ridley (Tennessee Titans)

TE: Jonnu Smith (Miami Dolphins) Note: Can play in flex position

PK: Brandon Aubrey (Dallas Cowboys)

DST: Pittsburgh Steelers Houston Texans

Based on this roster, I am locked in at QB, RB, PK, and DST.  I need to monitor Kenneth Walker’s injury status but fortunately, I drafted Zach Charbonnet as a handcuff in case of a situation just like this, which paid off handsomely in week 14.  Hopefully, if Walker does play, he does not split carries with Charbonnet.

WR Tyreek Hill was my first-round draft pick.  He has underachieved this season but is a constant threat and is a must start.  The only decisions I must make are at the 2nd WR and flex positions.  WR Jameson Williams, Jakobi Meyers and Calvin Ridley have similar production this season and I am not thrilled about either one.  I am reluctant to play TE Jonnu Smith at the flex position since I am already starting Tyreek Hill, both with the Dolphins.  Therefore, I need to select two of the three WRs to fill the 2nd WR and flex positions.  Factors I will consider include the following:

  • Recent performance including target share
  • Whether playing home or away (Note: All 3 players are at home)
  • QB situation (e.g., Aidan O’Connell injured)
  • Game script (e.g., Detroit is primarily a run-first team)
  • Matchup

Currently, I am leaning towards playing Meyers and Ridley, but a final decision will not happen until Sunday.  I recommend taking a similar approach to setting your lineup for the playoffs.

Week 14 Results

QB: Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins) 334 total yards, 2 TDs, 0 Int

Sam Darnold (Minnesota Vikings) 354 total yards, 5 TDs, 0 Int

RB: Rico Dowdle (Dallas Cowboys) 1 reception, 141 total yards, 0 TDs

Sleeper: Isaac Guerendo (San Francisco 49ers) 2 receptions, 128 total yards, 2 TDs

WR: Khalil Shakir (Buffalo Bills) 5 receptions, 106 total yards, 1 TD

Tee Higgins (Cincinnati Bengals) 2 receptions, 23 total yards, 0 TDs

TE: Mike Gesicki (Cincinnati Bengals) 3 receptions, 24 total yards, 0 TDs

Cade Otton (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) 3 receptions, 70 total yards, 0 TDs

PK: Tyler Bass (Buffalo Bills) 6 points, 6 PATs, 0 FGs

Jake Elliott (Philadelphia Eagles) 2 points, 2 PATs, 0 FGs

DF: Minnesota Vikings: 21 points against, 502 total yards allowed, 1 sack, 3 takeaways

New Orleans Saints: 11 points against, 339 total yards allowed, 2 sacks, 1 takeaway

Players to Start Week 15

QB: Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers vs. Los Angeles Rams)

Sam Darnold (Minnesota Vikings vs. Chicago Bears)

RB: Tony Pollard (Tennessee Titans vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Chuba Hubbard (Carolina Panthers vs. Dallas Cowboys)

WR: Terry McLaurin (Washington Commanders at New Orleans Saints)

Courtland Sutton (Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts)

TE: David Njoku (Cleveland Browns vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

Travis Kelce (Kansas City Chiefs at Cleveland Browns)

PK: Wil Lutz (Denver Broncos vs. Indianapolis Colts)

Cameron Dicker (Los Angeles Chargers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

DF: New York Jets (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Arizona Cardinals (vs. New England Patriots)

Week 14 Selections Versus the Point Spread

Detroit Lions (-3.0) vs. Green Bay Packers Final Score: Det. 34  GB 31

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers Final Score: KC 19  LAC 17

Cincinnati Bengals (-5.0) at Dallas Cowboys Final Score: Cin.  27  Dal.  20

Week 14 Record:  1 – 1 – 1 Season Record:  21 – 20 – 1

Week 15 Selections Versus the Point Spread

San Francisco 49ers (-2.0) vs. Los Angeles Rams

A huge game for both teams with a major setback for the loser in the playoff race.  The Rams won their first meeting by a FG back in week 3, which was a rare win for the Rams during the regular season in this series.  The 49ers offense got back on track last week against a decent Chicago Bears defense.  Take the 49ers minus the points based on playing at home and the history between these two teams.

Seattle Seahawks (+3.0) vs. Green Bay Packers

A very meaningful game for both teams.  Seattle is a tough place to play, and their defense has really picked up under head coach Mike Macdonald.  The winner will be whichever team has more success running the football.  It is hard to believe Seattle is a home underdog so take the Seahawks and the points.

Chicago Bears (+6.5) at Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings quietly have one of the best records in football and QB Sam Darnold is hot after throwing 5 TD passes last week.  You never know which Bears team is going to show up.  The Vikings defeated the Bears by a FG in OT back in week 12.  This is a tough black-and-blue matchup between division rivals so 6.5 points seems like a lot.  Take the Bears with the points.

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